Had they gone forth with you, they would not have increased you except in confusion, and they would have been active among you, seeking [to cause] you fitnah [i.e., chaos and dissension]. And among you are avid listeners to them. And Allāh is Knowing of the wrongdoers.
(And if they had intended to march out,), with you to participate in Jihad
لأَعَدُّواْ لَهُ عُدَّةً
(certainly, they would have made some preparation for it) they would have prepared for such task,
وَلَـكِن كَرِهَ اللَّهُ انبِعَاثَهُمْ
(but Allah was averse to their being sent forth) Allah hated that they should go with you,
فَثَبَّطَهُمْ
(so He made them lag behind, and stay away from Jihad,
وَقِيلَ اقْعُدُواْ مَعَ الْقَـعِدِينَ
(and it was said (to them): "Sit you among those who sit (at home)") as a part of what was decreed for them not that He legislated that they stay behind. Allah then explained why He disliked that they march with the believers, saying,
In the fifth (47) verse, it was explained that the hypocrites had procured the permission to stay away from Jihad by deceit and now it was better that they just did not participate in it. Had they gone there, they would have done nothing but hatch conspiracies, circulate rumors and spread disorder. The Qur'anic statement: وَفِيكُمْ سَمَّاعُونَ لَهُمْ (And among you there are their listeners) means that, among Muslims, there were some simple people too, people who could be easily taken advantage of and who may have likely been affected by their false rumors.
Tazkirul Quran
Maulana Wahiduddin Khan
At a time when a son is ill or there is a daughter’s marriage, nobody spares himself or his money; he will sacrifice his life and his wealth for the sole purpose of being of use to his kinsfolk. This is not the time for sheltering behind excuses. Similarly, the truly religious individual will never put forward excuses, when some occasion arises which demands sacrifice for religion. The restless emotions of faith in his heart await such a crucial moment when he will have the chance to sacrifice himself and prove his loyalty before God. Then, such an occasion having arisen, how would such a person try to hide behind an excuse? The believer is God-fearing in nature, fear being the strongest feeling in man. The feeling of fear overcomes all other feelings. A man becomes extremely realistic and serious about anything to which he relates to. For this reason, one who has become a believer in God at the level of fear wastes no time in understanding what his reaction should be on particular occasions. The benefits of the Hereafter not being present before a human being, he entertains doubts about making any sacrifices for it. But to tear off this veil of doubt is the real test of man in this world.
Uthmani text of the Madinah mushaf (King Fahd Complex). Translation: Saheeh International. Tafsir via Quran.com.